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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still